France’s Anti-Russia Diplomatic Moves: Predictions and Possible Scenarios

French President Emmanuel Macron’s statements and significant declarations regarding the Russia-Ukraine war have been widely covered in the international community for weeks.

Especially since the beginning of the war, France, which has provided a certain level of support to Ukraine, finds its rhetoric and moves of critical importance as the war seems to be stalemated in Ukraine’s favor and Russia’s advances are highlighted.

The delay in U.S. assistance and the insufficient aid from European countries have begun to influence Ukraine’s fate and the course of the war. Therefore, under the leadership of France, Western countries and leaders find themselves compelled to foresee new strategies and moves, necessitating a change in policy.

Under Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, French officials have begun discussions on scenarios regarding France’s intervention in Ukraine and its plans and strategies. Analyses containing certain predictions considering the current situation of the war are also being drafted.

Four scenarios stand out regarding France’s aid to Ukraine and its policies against Russia’s moves.

The first scenario envisages the establishment and development of military production facilities in Ukrainian territories under the coordination of French engineers. Within this framework, the aim is to strengthen Ukraine’s local defense industry and enhance its capacity.

The second scenario considers the provision of training to Ukrainian soldiers by the French army. Simultaneously, providing necessary support to enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian army and mitigate the negative impacts of the war is also envisaged within this plan.

The third scenario involves the defense of strategic points such as Odessa, a significant port city in the Black Sea, by French air defense units. Especially, the deployment of French troops to the region and the placement of air defense systems to protect airspace are being considered.

In the fourth and final scenario, the conception involves establishing a line along the regions and borders of Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnieper, Belarus, and Transnistria in Ukraine. The aim is to prevent conflicts and ensure effective transportation of humanitarian aid along this line.

These scenarios, predicting the political, military, and economic support France plans to provide to Ukraine in the future, could be seen as likely steps to change the course of the war. The implementation of these scenarios, primarily aimed at restoring Ukraine’s strength against Russia, is crucial for Europe and France. However, the feasibility of these scenarios, how the intervention will take place, and what diplomatic consequences it will entail remain uncertain and subject to speculation.

Written by Umut Guner.

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